Best TNF Player Props ??? Broncos vs Saints Prop Bets

The New Orleans Saints (2-4) host the Denver Broncos (3-3) on Thursday Night Football in Week 7, marking a homecoming for Broncos head coach Sean Payton. Payton was the head coach of the Saints for 15 seasons and led the 2009 team to a Super Bowl victory.

We crunched the numbers to find the best TNF player props for the Broncos vs. Saints involving Alvin Kamara, Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton, Bo Nix, and Spencer Rattler.

The Saints are +2 home underdogs on TNF with a rookie quarterback starting his second career game. The Saints lost four games in a row, and the Broncos recently had a three-game winning streak snapped. The Broncos lost All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain to a concussion, which he suffered on the first play of the game on Sunday. He’s still in concussion protocol and not expected to play on a short week.

Best TNF Player Props: Touchdowns

The points total is only 37 over/under, so NFL betting sites are expecting a low-scoring affair, even though the Saints generate 27.8 points per game. The Saints are tied for the fifth-highest scoring team in the NFL, and they have the tenth-worst defense that allows 24.5 ppg. Four out of six games went over for the Saints this season.

The Broncos struggle to score points, averaging only 18.7 ppg, which is the eighth-lowest output this season. However, defense is the Broncos’ best trait. They have the fourth-best scoring defense in the NFL that allows only 16 ppg.

If you’re a disciple of advanced metrics and DVOA, the Broncos are ranked #10 in defensive DVOA, and the Saints are ranked #14.

Touchdowns will be at a premium on TNF, unless you’re dual-threat running back Alvin Kamara from the Saints. Kamara is the consensus favorite to score the first touchdown at +450 odds, an anytime touchdown at +100 odds, and two touchdowns at +650 odds. He scored six rushing touchdowns and added one touchdown reception through the first six games. We like Kamara to score at least two touchdowns at +650 odds as one of our best TNF player props.

Broncos quarterback Bo Nix leads his team with three rushing touchdowns. He’s +255 odds to score a non-passing touchdown. Running back Javonte Williams might be the Broncos’ leading rusher, but he has not scored a touchdown this season. Williams is overdue, which is why he’s only +150 odds to score a touchdown.

Broncos vs. Saints Player Props: Passing

The Broncos have the sixth-worst passing attack in the NFL, generating 170.8 yards per game. Meanwhile, the Saints do not have a very good secondary, allowing 262.2 passing yards per game. Nix has a chance to put up one of his best passing performances of the season.

Nix completed 61.1% of his passes during his rookie season with five touchdowns and five interceptions. He averages 180.3 passing yards per game, but if you dismiss his first start in Week 1 (138 yards) and his worst game (60 yards vs. the New York Jets), Nix averages 221 yards per game in four other starts.

Nix tossed two touchdowns in each of his last two games. You can back him at +240 odds to throw two or more touchdowns.

Nix also has a special prop bet at BetMGM Sportsbook with a total of 220.5 combined passing and rushing yards. He averages 30.0 rushing yards per game, mostly on scrambles, but we like him to surpass the over in combo yards as another one of our best TNF player props.

Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler was a former five-star recruit coming out of high school and was even the subject of a documentary from the “Friday Night Lights” director. He had a subpar career in college, but the Saints took a flier on him with a fifth-round draft pick.

With Derek Carr injured, Rattler demonstrated flashes of excellence in his first career start last week. He completed 50% of his passes for 243 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions.

Rattler has a passing total of 183.5 yards, and we like the under on a short week against Payton’s stifling defense. You can back the rookie at +240 odds to throw two or more touchdowns and +1200 odds to throw three-plus touchdowns.

Broncos vs. Saints Player Props: Receiving

The Broncos are hoping their wide receivers can take advantage of a porous secondary. Only four out of five touchdowns from Nix were caught by wide receivers. Courtland Sutton is the most experienced wideout on the Broncos. He leads the team with 47 targets, 21 receptions, 277 yards, and two touchdown catches.

Sutton averages 46.5 yards per game, but he tallied at least 53 yards in three out of the last four games, including two games this season with 60-plus yards. Sutton’s over at betting apps looks enticing at 46.5 yards.

Chris Olave, the WR #1 for the Saints, sustained a concussion last week. He’s not expected to clear concussion protocol in time to play on a short week for TNF. Oddsmakers will wait closer to game time to release more player props for wide receivers and tight ends on the Saints.

Broncos vs. Saints Player Props: Rushing

The Broncos have the tenth-lowest rushing attack in the NFL, averaging only 107.3 yards per game. Javonte Williams leads the Broncos with 59 carries for 213 yards. He averages 3.6 yards per carry and 35.5 rushing yards per game. He had two games where he exceeded 61 yards but had four games with 23 or fewer yards, including two games under 17 yards.

The Broncos are ranked #14 in rush defense or in the middle of the pack. Their frontline and linebackers will be busy trying to contain Kamara. Kamara is listed as questionable on the injury report with a hand issue, but fans in the Big Easy are optimistic he’ll be in the backfield for a rematch against his former head coach.

Kamara averages 4.1 yards per carry this season with 73.5 yards per game. After a heavy workload in the first four games of the season, he’s only averaging 12 rushes and 33 yards in the last two games. The Saints fell behind early against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 5 and lost a shootout against the Tampa Bay Bucs in Week 6. TNF is expected to be a low-scoring game, which offers a positive outlook if you want to see more running plays against the Broncos.

If you want to place a cool prop bet on Kamara, his receiving and rushing combined total is 111.5 yards at -115 odds.